Echoes of War

The number of 20-year-old Russians, according to the latest Rosstat data, is almost half that of 35-year-olds. The reason is not only the decline in the birth rate in the 1990s. It is an echo of the Great Patriotic War - a demographic hole that is repeated in different generations every 25-30 years, according to the website of the All-Russian Population Census.

For the first time, the demographic echo of the Great Patriotic War (the emergence of huge disparities between different generations, as well as men and women) was recorded by the 1959 census. There were almost half as many 40-year-old residents of the RSFSR (the generation of young veterans) as 30-year-olds. The ratio of men to women at that age was almost the same, and there were almost twice as many men 35-60 years old as women.

According to the 1897 Russian Empire census, there were 992 men for every 1000 women, but the 1959 census showed an imbalance of 1000 to 641. Only 20 years later, according to the 1979 census, the situation began to improve: there were 784 men for every 1,000 women.

"The war took the lives of millions of men, mostly young men, disrupting the normal sex ratio in the population for decades to come. Traditionally, more boys are born than girls, and the sex ratio changes later, by the age of 30. But according to the 1939 census, there were already more girls than boys in the 5-9 age group. The war, which began in 1941, increased gender disparity in the older generations as well," explains Elena Egorova, head of the "Quantitative Methods of Research on Regional Development" research laboratory at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. The Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

According to data from the 1959 census, there were almost 2.5 times fewer teenagers born during the war than younger or older teenagers. By the 1960s, they had grown up and become parents, and the next demographic hole was formed - "children of war children.

While Russia's birth rate had been 26.9 ppm before that, it had already fallen to 23.2 ppm in the 1960s. In the 1970s, the trend was reinforced by the transition from the traditional large family to a more modern, small family.

The demographic echo of the war is gradually being diluted by other events in the country's history, such as the collapse of the USSR and the economic difficulties of the early 1990s. The demographic situation is smoothed by support measures for young and large families. But there is a pattern: population dips related to the war are repeated in different generations every 25-30 years.

Judging by the latest demographic pyramid (as of January 1, 2020), the number of 20-year-old Russians is almost half that of 35-year-olds. There is a similar dip at ages 50-55 and 75-78. In 1989, there were similarly almost half as many 20-year-olds as 30-35-year-olds.

"Apparently, today we have a third echo of the war - another marked decline in the number of 20-year-old Russians. Such demographic pits can repeat in cycles for decades to come. Such failures strongly affect not only the birth rate, but also the dynamics of aging of Russians. The working-age population is now dominated by the older generation (born in the late 1960s and early 1970s) and middle-aged people (born in the 1980s). And there are quite a few young able-bodied people. This is not very positive for the economy, because in an era of rapidly changing technology we need younger and more energetic personnel," said Elena Egorova.

An even bigger problem, according to the expert, could be the transition of Russians to retirement age in the near future.

"At the moment in the older ages - 70-80 years - there are people of postwar years of birth, and there are quite a few of them. They are being replaced by the generation of the 1960s, a small generation, which will be replaced by a newly numerous generation, which is very important to consider when analyzing and forecasting the development of the pension system. The decline in the birth rate and the wave-like structure of the population lead to a temporary increase in the workforce and a "deficit of grandchildren": there is now one grandchild for every two or three grandparents, while ideally the ratio should be equal," summarizes Egorova.

The consequences of another demographic hole will be two important things for society: a decrease in the number of active consumers of various products and services, as well as a shortage of young people in the labor market, says Evgenia Shamis, founder and coordinator of the research center "RuGenerations - Generation Theory in Russia."

"We don't have a lot of 20-year-olds, and that's why it's not the companies that are choosing now, but the job seekers. And companies are adjusting. But we should not forget: the situation may be different in other countries and in the global market. And, of course, to replace the current 20-year-olds very soon will come the next, more numerous generation Z, which was born in 2003 to date, "- said Eugene Shamis.

As the situation may change in ten years, the forthcoming All-Russian Population Census will make it possible to see more accurately.

The All-Russian Population Census will take place from October 1 to October 31, 2021, using digital technology. The main innovation of the upcoming census will be the possibility for Russian residents to fill in the electronic census form at the portal of State Services. Census takers will use tablets with special software when they go round the premises. It will also be possible to take an enumeration at census sites, including the premises of "My Documents" multifunctional centers for state and municipal services.